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In other words, it’s possible for a fiscal consolidation to be taking place – even a very severe one with serious social impacts – while a country’s national stock of debt relative to its GDP continues to rise.

This is all the more likely to be the case if the austerity reduces the country’s growth rate, as it mostly does when interest rates are already at rock bottom.

The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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As the backlash against austerity has grown in recent weeks, we’ve seen a host of cockroach arguments bob up in the bowl: talking points that were comprehensively rebutted the first time around. “Whereas Ireland managed to reduce its gross public debt from 86 per cent to 75 per cent of national income between 20, Britain’s public debt carried on rising: from 76 per cent to 89 per cent,” he pointed out. As Simon Wren-Lewis of Oxford University points out, this confuses levels with rates of change.What this ignores is the fact that as a share of GDP, public spending has fallen significantly from 45 per cent to 39 per cent.Moreover, demand on certain sectors of state spending, such as health and pensions, have risen for structural demographic reasons, meaning almost every other area has had to bear far bigger reductions than these aggregate figures suggest.My chronology therefore differs in important ways from prior lists.One of the table’s benefits is that it gives a visual presentation of which recessions were accompanied by bank panics and which were not.




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